If I create a blog on the web...will anyone read it?

Let's find out (FWIW, smart money is on "NO" - as in no one will read it)!

I am charged with launching a blog for a course I am taking for my MBA at Northeastern University. I thought long and hard about what to write - I figured I should stick with something that I am remotely interested in...trading. Trading stocks, bonds, commodities, etc...

So here goes...

The US economy is headed for a recession and here is why:

1) The single most accurate predictor of recession is an inverted yield curve. I believe the yield curve has been inverted (albeit off & on) since December 2005. I believe history has told us that ~4 to 6 quarters after the yield curve inverts the economy goes south. We are into the 4th quarter.

2) Another accurate predictor of recession is a spike in the price of oil. Check!

3) The US Dollar Index is bouncing off multi-decade lows. I think we break through support as money flows out of the US Dollar and into the Yuan - China has to finally let the Yuan lift in order to put the brakes on their economy.

4) I am not going to use the term housing bubble - because I am sick of hearing about it. I am going to say this though - the US consumer is financed to the gills and needs every cent of their paycheck to meet their mortgage payment. When the economy does hit the skids people are going to start losing their jobs. When this happens people are no longer afforded the luxury of trying to sell their house - THEY HAVE TO SELL IT. And when they don't the banks will end up eating shit. Inevitably the bank in second position (through a HEL or HELOC) will buy the house at auction and then try and turn around and sell it. If they are lucky they get bit for only the amount of the HEL or HELOC. But if they aren't (which I believe they won't be) they will either sell the house for a lesser amount therefore taking a greater loss OR the more likely scenario is holding on to the house and eventually having to mark it to market ultimately causing the bank to fail (it wouldn't be just one house it would be an entire portfolio of loans) and then the house is sold at absolute auction (which is why I am convinced the next house I buy will be at auction).

So with all that said in ~June of 2005 when I started believing the yield curve was going to invert and the US economy looked like it was heading into the ninth inning, I took a position in gold. In ~September 2006 I increased my cash position (erch, missed that 10% run into the end of the year!). So currently my portfolio is roughly 1/3 cash, 1/3 gold, 1/3 stocks. I anticipate I will liquidate the remaining stocks in my account - however, I am unsure where I may place the proceeds. I am thinking of just shorting S&P Futures outright.

Other subjects I'll kick around here: geopolitical, sports, actually pretty much anything. But like I said...I will be shocked if anyone posts a frigging thing.

Finally, about this blog's title, my old boss once said I was an ugly trader - meaning bull in a china shop type of thing (I think!).